Impacts of Climate Change

According to the IPCC New Zealands temperature is likely to rise over the next 85+ years. Being that it's located in the southern hemisphere the highest temperature changes will be notice on the North island as it's closer to the equator and we will see limited temperature change on the South island as it's closer to Antarctica. As for precipitation the only area that will really see and increase would likely be the western part of the South island.

With there being minimal increase in precipitation we will see that directly impact evaporation. Pretty soon there's bound to be conflict over who owns the rights to certain water. In taking a Colorado History class I found out that it can create quite a stir. Touching back to my first paragraph, with the increase in temperature this leads to more polar ice caps melting thus making the risk of coastal flooding more prevelant. Being that New Zealand is an island surrounded by water, the IPCC predicts that by 2050 New Zealand will be at a great risk for sea-level rising and coastal flooding.

Here are four maps of New Zealand that show projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the next 50 & 100 years. http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate/nz-fifth-national-communication/page7.html 



The IPCC's Third Assessment Report confirms what was said above. "Since 1950 there has been 0.4 to 0.7°C warming, with more heatwaves, fewer frosts, more rain in north-west Australia and south-west New Zealand, less rain in southern and eastern Australia and north-eastern New Zealand, an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts, and a rise in sea level of about 70 mm" http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch11s11-es.html. The Earth is warming and there are signs all around us indicating this. Droughts are happening more frequently thus leading to an increase in wild fires and also leading to a decrease in agricultural production.

I would say the biggest threat to New Zealand is sea-level rise combined with coastal flooding. This poses huge threats to the nations people who live near the coast. In taking oceanography prior to this class I learned that nearly 40% of the USA's population lives on the coast. To no surprise New Zealand also has 65% of their population living near the coast. With statistics indicating that we in store for an increase in temperature, more and more sea ice will be melting. This will in effect raise the level of the oceans. All of these people living near the coasts will be forced to re-locate. Being that New Zealand is a country of two islands this doesn't leave people with a lot of options. If the sea level rises too much theny coastal flooding will also occur. This will affect certain areas of agricultural production. There is such a snowball effect from sea-level rise, that is why I figured it was the biggest threat to the island nation of New Zealand.